UPDATE: Wed 19 Jan 2011 / 9:20p.m.
No significant changes to forecast reasoning. There will be a mixture of light snow and freezing rain north to mostly sleet and freezing rain further south. The trough axis passes during the afternoon, ending all precipitation before sunset. In fact, clouds may break some over the western half of our area during the afternoon. If this happens it will quickly melt any ice on roads in those areas.
Water equivalents will be less than a tenth of an inch in most cases, which means perhaps an inch of snow over the northern half of Texoma and a few hundredths of an inch of ice further south.
Of course, very little ice is need to cause some real headaches, so please use extreme caution when traveling around Texoma Thursday.
A fairly chilly batch of air will slide southward our of central Canada and push a frontal boundary through on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a fairly strong mid-level trough will move overhead, providing lift and cooling aloft. Meanwhile, southerly winds return at the surface Wednesday, boosting low-level moisture levels.
Steering winds flow (500mb)Thursday 6am: dashed blue line shows trough / ECMWF model
All of these points to a pretty high rain chance Thursday. If the cold air arrives in time, some sleet or snow may mix in. Some accumulating snow is possible over the northern tier of Texoma counties, but at this time the majority of our area would just get gusty winds and cold rain.
Sunshine returns Friday with very cold morning lows. A "wavy" NW flow aloft will bring several more troughs our way, keeping the pattern rather unsettled into next week (above map).
An update blog will be posted Wednesday evening regarding the Thursday winter weather potential.