Latest indications for a slightly faster cold front and surface low movement match up with well with SPC’s higher severe threat eastward of Texoma. This outlook is also consistent with the past two day’s worth of forecast thinking.
A surface low will be the "triple point" where a cold front and dry line meet; latest indications carry this low to our north. This track is less favorable for widespread severe in Texoma, although the dry line’s passage could give us a few severe storms with hail or an isolated tornado.
The most likely scenario is for stronger storms over the eastern stretches of Texoma (mainly east of Hwy 75) Thursday afternoon along a dry line. Expect much lower severe storm chances further west (more below map)
Low-level moisture flow will also be greater the further east you go through Texas and into Arkansas Thursday. This why the severe potential in central Arkansas is 3-9 times what it is in Texoma.
The risk looks definite but slight for severe storms, with a pretty decent chance of rain in any case. Take Care,