Arctic Surge by Jan 10th...

This is the latest update to a blog I began on Dec 31st.

Newest model guidance shows little change in a late Sunday/early Monday arrival of very cold air. I have included a chance of LIGHT snow...given expected limited moisture conditions, a major snow event seems unlikely.

Most of the snow would be the result of low-level cold air condensation, a pattern which usually produces light amounts (discussion continues below map).

A large mid and upper low tracking to our north will help to "open the door" to the arctic air. If this low were to drift further south, the chance of significant snow will increase, but that appears to be of only low probability at this time.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist


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  • by Chris Location: Texas side of the Lake on Jan 8, 2011 at 07:09 AM
    Is there anything we can do to deter the cold from coming here? :)
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jan 5, 2011 at 02:59 PM
    Gentlemen, Thanks for your questions. Fonzie, the satellite imagery shows an impressive trough extending from Alaska to about 20 degrees north latitude. It will kick the CA low eastward as it continues to develop. The arctic air "door" will open before the upper trough arrives due to building surface pressures.once the trough passes it will serve to drive a reinforcing surge in Tuesday...but the cold air should show up ahead of the trough Sunday night or Monday. Brandon...given the evolving pattern we are in, it's difficult to speak with HIGH confidence about Jan 17th. I called the Christmas forecast out 10 days but that it is not typical, and the pattern was more stable then. There has been decent continuity during the past two days on the polar vortex shifting very far southward to almost the U.S. border…and the model is showing very cold air around the 17th….but…it's just too far away for me to say...this time - Steve
  • by Fonzie Location: Bugtussle on Jan 5, 2011 at 08:19 AM
    Steve, if that Low were to remain stubborn and hold off the Mexican/Cali coast through the weekend, would the Arctic air still make it down or does the arctic air come only after the Low swings through?
  • by Brandon Location: Sherman on Jan 4, 2011 at 09:55 PM
    Good evening. I generally agree with your thoughts with the potential with light snow with this event. I'd like to talk alittle more about the future. I feel like this artic cold front is "opening the door" for a similar future pattern to continue. Latest GFS run suggest a significant snowfall event somewhere around the 17th to 21st timeframe. Now we know this is VERY far how. However, not even basing anything off of models and pure science you know if we can keep the temperatures low, eventually the snow will come. So, anyway, whats your opinion on my thoughts?
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