Warm April, Warm Summer? Not Necessarily...

April 2012 will go down in the record books as warmer than average.

April will pan out about 3 degrees above normal. This is a less extreme warming than March, which was more than 6 degrees above the norm.

There is no clear correlation between a warm April and a hot summer in Texoma. Only three of the top 10 hottest summers had top 10 warmest Aprils - in 1954, 2006 and 2011 (discussion continues below image).

So while the hottest summer ever for the Red River Valley (2011) had a very warm April, many hot summers here had run-of-the mill temperatures during the mid spring period.

Does this mean we won’t have a very hot summer? Nope. It just means that the relationship between the two is not strong enough to make a good forecast.

Most of the long-range NOAA guidance suggests warmer than average, but not extreme, heat this year. The La Nina which helped bring the brutal temperatures last year is gone, and that was a significant factor in 2011’s amped-up summertime heat.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

 

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