Update: 5:30 p.m. Thu 19 Dec 2013
There are no major changes to the forecast; heavy rainfall is the primary concern with Saturday’s weather, with a little snow possible in northern areas Saturday night. Significant accumulations are not expected, but rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be widespread with the heaviest rainfall from Highway 75 eastward.
Sunday will be windy and cold with decreasing clouds. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day should be dry with cold night and coolish days.
Update: 9:30 p.m. Wed 18 Dec 2013
It looks like rain this weekend…and in fact we may get a couple of inches of rain in the southern half of the area. The air mass moving southward from the central Plains is just not cold enough to produce any snow here; outside of some light snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning; the primary expectation is for heavy rainfall Saturday. Here's the latest rainfall projection for the period from the HPC:
Depending on how far south the front gets, the southern segment of Texoma may see a few strong thunderstorms on Saturday. There will be a large temperature range across the front of 20-30 degrees, so if it stalls 50 miles farther north than expected, then Sherman’s forecast high of 55 Saturday might be 75.
The northern half of Texoma looks more certain to be quite cold Saturday: in the 40s to around 50, and some wet snow may still show up early Sunday around Ada and Sulphur...but amounts would probably be less than an inch.
Update: Tue 17 Dec 2013 / 9:45 p.m.
The Tuesday night update offers little change to the forecast; the elements seem to be coming together as outlined in the Dec 16th post below. Rainfall…some heavy…can be expected on a cold and soggy Saturday.
There’s potential for a change-over to snow or ice across the northern fringes of Texoma Saturday night, and all of the area could get a little wet snow Sunday morning before it quits. Accumulations will generally be little if any, with the exception of our northern counties such as Murray, Coal and Pontotoc where some accumulations of snow are possible Saturday night or early Sunday.
Temperatures area-wide should rise above freezing Sunday, so if we do get any frozen precip it won’t be on the roads for 5 days like we saw with the Dec 5th storm.The next update will be posted Wednesday evening.
===================Dec 16 post ===========================
It looks like a cold and wet weekend-before-Christmas, but right now the threat of frozen precipitation is on the low side for Texoma.
A cold front will be pushing through sometime Friday, and temperatures will cool in its wake, but the air mass moving our way is not nearly as cold as what we had in place for the Dec 5th sleet storm.
Given that, the most likely scenario is a cold rain developing behind the front on Saturday as a large mid-level low (see map) approaches from the west. There will be the potential for some light amounts of snow or sleet as the core of the low, which contains the coldest air aloft, passes Sunday.
However, the surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing so accumulations would be light if any in Texoma. Also, unlike the Dec 5th storm, most of the moisture should be shunted eastward before the coldest air arrives, further limiting the snow/sleet potential.
There is a greater potential for accumulating snowfall over the northern half of Oklahoma where the cold air will be deeper. Since snow or ice may be less than 100 miles to our north, we will need to keep an eye on this for sure, but my bottom line as of Monday night is that the air just doesn’t look cold enough for significant accumulations of snow (or ice) here.
I will post an update on our weekend outlook each evening through Thursday.