Early December Snow?: UPDATE

Event Summary:

Snowfall generally ranged from a trace to a 1/2 inch across Texoma; Whitesboro reported about an inch and Gainesville/Muenster residents said they got a couple of inches.

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FINAL UPDATE: Sun 4 Dec 2011 / 11:00p.m.

The colder air has filtered in slower than expected, making the time frame for any snow formation narrower before all precipitation ends. However, a well-defined "impulse" in the flow aloft will trek across the Red River Valley Monday morning, and this may help cool the air enough for some wet snowfall along its path.

Surface temperatures will be too warm for any major effect on roads, and places that get any snowfall accumulation would probably see 1/2 inch at most on grassy areas.

There's also a small chance for snow Tuesday night/Wednesday with another piece of upper energy, but dry air in place suggests flurries as opposed to any accumulating snow.

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UPDATE: Sat 3 Dec 2011 / 10:00 p.m.

The prospect of wintry precipitation continues in the Monday forecast; the warmth of the soil and daytime temperatures in the 30s suggests any accumulation would be limited..so the potential for a major winter weather event looks low, but some snow or sleet is still expected.

Amounts are not expected to be heavy, but accumulations could occur. Original discussion posted below still holds.

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There’s potential for wintry precipitation Monday-Tuesday as cold air arrives ahead of a powerful upper level storm system.

A large mid-level low is expected to spread a wide swath of snow from New Mexico to Wisconsin Sunday-Monday. The maximum threat for snow or ice in Texoma appears to be Monday.

                                             Upper low approaches Monday morning....

 


           While cold low-level air provides favorable temperatures for winter precipitation.

A chilly polar air mass seeps southward behind a Sunday morning cold front while the low aloft moves eastward. Very cold air in the core of the low provides strong lifting for precipitation.

The clouds must be at or below freezing for snowflakes to form. Frozen  precipitation could begin as sleet before the cold air deepens enough for it to change to all snow. The biggest wild card in the equation is moisture supply.

It appears there will be enough moisture available to provide a chance of accumulating snowfall Monday, but warm soil temperatures and daytime highs on Monday above freezing means snow that falls will be a slushy mess on the ground (if we get any). Amounts are not expected to be heavy, but an inch or two is possible.

Drier westerly winds aloft would end any chance for precipitation by early Tuesday if the timing holds. It’s highly uncertain how much we might get...but again it's looking like a wet snow or sleet.

 

Stay tuned.

I will post updates to the blog over the weekend.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

 

 

 

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