A significant winter weather event is looking more probable for the period Mon-Wed. This means February may well come in on a snowy (or icy) note.
A large blob of frigid air continues to build over far northern Canada. The core of this cold air has been centered near Hudson Bay during the past few days.
Now, the region of frigid temperatures has begun to develop westward, which is a more favorable starting point for the air to reach us. Pressures are steadily rising over the Northwest Territories as an upper ridge builds over Alaska and this is another indicator for the air to begin moving southward soon.
The arctic front dividing this air from much milder air to the south is expected to begin moving our way over the weekend and pass through some time Monday.
Meanwhile, a mid-level trough is being “spun off” of a large low over the eastern Pacific. All computer projections bring this trough into the Texas/Oklahoma region by Tuesday. Given the very cold air in place by that time, ice or snow is looking more likely. Southerly flow over-running the frontal boundary suggests precipitation amounts will be significant.
The depth of the cold air will govern whether we get ice or snow. My best guess at this time is a cold rain event Monday transitioning to freezing rain and sleet, and then finally snow as the cold air gets deeper by Tuesday.
It’s difficult to pinpoint such an event more than 24 hours out, so there’s some wiggle room necessary with this forecast.