Winter Weather Event for Feb 1st?

A significant winter weather event is looking more probable for the period Mon-Wed. This means February may well come in on a snowy (or icy) note.

A large blob of frigid air continues to build over far northern Canada. The core of this cold air has been centered near Hudson Bay during the past few days.

Now, the region of frigid temperatures has begun to develop westward, which is a more favorable starting point for the air to reach us. Pressures are steadily rising over the Northwest Territories as an upper ridge builds over Alaska and this is another indicator for the air to begin moving southward soon.

The arctic front dividing this air from much milder air to the south is expected to begin moving our way over the weekend and pass through some time Monday.

Meanwhile, a mid-level trough is being “spun off” of a large low over the eastern Pacific. All computer projections bring this trough into the Texas/Oklahoma region by Tuesday. Given the very cold air in place by that time, ice or snow is looking more likely. Southerly flow over-running the frontal boundary suggests precipitation amounts will be significant.

The depth of the cold air will govern whether we get ice or snow. My best guess at this time is a cold rain event Monday transitioning to freezing rain and sleet, and then finally snow as the cold air gets deeper by Tuesday.

It’s difficult to pinpoint such an event more than 24 hours out, so there’s some wiggle room necessary with this forecast.

 
Take Care,

 

Steve LaNore

Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

 

 

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:13 AM
    This is going to be a bad storm; it's tough to say for sure how much ice we'll get, but areas from Sherman-Atoka eastward stand a greater risk of some ice trouble, while all areas will have very windy weather with severe cold and at least some snow too. Please be safe during this storm... Steve
  • by Ron Location: Howe on Jan 31, 2011 at 02:39 AM
    As long as they can keep up with the roads. Not that it can be helped. The northeast, which is used to stuff is inundated be feet of snow. We get a few inches and everything shuts down.
  • by Rebecca Location: Denison on Jan 30, 2011 at 10:47 AM
    Brrrrr. I am starting to feel the chill already today (Sunday).
  • by Mr. Freeze Location: Sherman on Jan 29, 2011 at 11:49 PM
    Sounds like ppl best head to the local hardware store for a generator while they can. This has the potential to become a limb breaker with downed power lines like we had approx. 10 yrs ago.
  • by Heather on Jan 29, 2011 at 06:26 PM
    Firewood is ready ;)
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