Winter Weather? Weekend UPDATE

UPDATE: Mon 6 Dec 2010 / 3:2-p.m. Even though nothing has changed,  thought you'd like to know I'm still keeping an eye on it.

Look for scattered flurries mainly Tuesday night with no accumulation. I will post a new blog tomorrow focusing on the next "blast 'o cold" expected Saturday - Steve

 

==============FRIDAY DISCUSSION=====================

UPDATE: 5:20p.m. Fri 3 Dec 2010 (discussion below map)

 

There has been very little change the previous discussion: a moisture-starved and fast-moving mid-level trough will pass over Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday.

This trough might provide some snow flurries; perhaps enough for a very light dusting. Given a general lack of moisture forecast in the lowest mile of air above the surface, it's just not a favorable situation for significant snowfall.

==============THURSDAY DISCUSSION=============

UPDATE: 5:30p.m. Thu 2 Dec 2010

The models are coming into better agreement that:

>>>The air will be cold enough for snowflake formation Monday night and Tuesday.

>>>Moisture will be quite limited due to northerly flow behind Saturday's front.

>>>An approaching mid-level trough will encounter "convergent flow" as it nears. This means air currents are coming together. This causes the low to be sheared and weaken.

>>>Given these factors, winter precipitation is expected to be very light with any snow accumulations just a dusting.

 

 

FACTORS that could change forecast:

===Stronger mid-level trough

===Greater moisture supply

Three maps below all show 6am Tuesday 500mb flow (steering winds)

 

Look for another update about this same time tomorrow. Previous discussion below.

 

==============WEDNESDAY DISCUSSION================

 

 

 

Polar high pressure building over central Canada is expected to push a cold front through sometime Saturday. The cool-down behind the front will be gradual as the high pressure center edges closer.

Meanwhile, a mid-level trough may show up in the jet stream flow by Monday or Tuesday. Given the cold air in place, there’s at least a chance of ice or snow as the trough moves by. The computer models continue to be all over the road on the position and strength of this trough. The most consistent model the past two days has been the US Navy’s version. This one brings light accumulations of ice or snow to Texoma on Tuesday with the core of heavy precipitation in the form of rain south of Dallas.
 
This makes sense as Saturday’s front will pass into the NW Gulf and keep Texoma cut off from significant moisture at the 5,000 foot level. This is often where saturated snow clouds form and dump their goods on us during the winter months. So, in this case the trough’s cold air and lift will have to counter the effect of marginal moisture.
 
Despite these limiting factors, there’s enough potential to put it on the 7 day at 30%.
 
Three maps comparing different model solutions for the same time frame (6am Tuesday) are shown below. Take a look at them. You can see why this deal is very far from certain.
 
Stay tuned for daily evening updates to this blog.
 
Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist / KXII-TV
 
 
 

 

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