Winter Weather? Weekend UPDATE

UPDATE: Mon 6 Dec 2010 / 3:2-p.m. Even though nothing has changed,  thought you'd like to know I'm still keeping an eye on it.

Look for scattered flurries mainly Tuesday night with no accumulation. I will post a new blog tomorrow focusing on the next "blast 'o cold" expected Saturday - Steve

 

==============FRIDAY DISCUSSION=====================

UPDATE: 5:20p.m. Fri 3 Dec 2010 (discussion below map)

 

There has been very little change the previous discussion: a moisture-starved and fast-moving mid-level trough will pass over Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday.

This trough might provide some snow flurries; perhaps enough for a very light dusting. Given a general lack of moisture forecast in the lowest mile of air above the surface, it's just not a favorable situation for significant snowfall.

==============THURSDAY DISCUSSION=============

UPDATE: 5:30p.m. Thu 2 Dec 2010

The models are coming into better agreement that:

>>>The air will be cold enough for snowflake formation Monday night and Tuesday.

>>>Moisture will be quite limited due to northerly flow behind Saturday's front.

>>>An approaching mid-level trough will encounter "convergent flow" as it nears. This means air currents are coming together. This causes the low to be sheared and weaken.

>>>Given these factors, winter precipitation is expected to be very light with any snow accumulations just a dusting.

 

 

FACTORS that could change forecast:

===Stronger mid-level trough

===Greater moisture supply

Three maps below all show 6am Tuesday 500mb flow (steering winds)

 

Look for another update about this same time tomorrow. Previous discussion below.

 

==============WEDNESDAY DISCUSSION================

 

 

 

Polar high pressure building over central Canada is expected to push a cold front through sometime Saturday. The cool-down behind the front will be gradual as the high pressure center edges closer.

Meanwhile, a mid-level trough may show up in the jet stream flow by Monday or Tuesday. Given the cold air in place, there’s at least a chance of ice or snow as the trough moves by. The computer models continue to be all over the road on the position and strength of this trough. The most consistent model the past two days has been the US Navy’s version. This one brings light accumulations of ice or snow to Texoma on Tuesday with the core of heavy precipitation in the form of rain south of Dallas.
 
This makes sense as Saturday’s front will pass into the NW Gulf and keep Texoma cut off from significant moisture at the 5,000 foot level. This is often where saturated snow clouds form and dump their goods on us during the winter months. So, in this case the trough’s cold air and lift will have to counter the effect of marginal moisture.
 
Despite these limiting factors, there’s enough potential to put it on the 7 day at 30%.
 
Three maps comparing different model solutions for the same time frame (6am Tuesday) are shown below. Take a look at them. You can see why this deal is very far from certain.
 
Stay tuned for daily evening updates to this blog.
 
Take Care,
Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist / KXII-TV
 
 
 

 

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  • by scott Location: Denison on Dec 9, 2010 at 03:13 PM
    Good point Murphy, I was wondering the same thing, They tend to say It's an Island effect, but DFW is alot bigger than us, and their temperature is always right with ours or cooler, doesnt make any sense to me either, My thermometer in my Car is usually always by the landmark bank themometer, but cooler the Grayson airport. Something awfully fishy. This time last year we ran kneck and kneck with Ardmore maybe 2 degrees difference but now 8 to 10 degrees different????????????????
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Dec 8, 2010 at 02:32 PM
    Murphy, I have noticed this as well, but I think it's probably a local effect rather than a thermometer malfunction. I say this because I live three miles from the airport and get similar readings to theirs, and our Sherman gauge at the station is usually a couple of degrees warmer than the airport. Austin College has a weather station a few miles west of the airport and it also gives readings warmer than surrounding cities. So, I'm not sure why this particular area is warmer, but I doubt it's a thermometer issue. Thanks for the question… Take Care, Steve
  • by Murphy Location: Sherman on Dec 7, 2010 at 06:49 AM
    Steve...for quite some time the reported temp in Sherman/Denison has been incorrect...this morning for example,it was reported @ 36...way too high...Gainesville was @ 25...Paris 26...Ardmore and Durant in the 20's...even DFW was reporting 33...not sure why, but the S/D temp is being reported at probably 10 degrees warmer than it really is...fyi...it was 26 on my back porch this AM...again, this has been going on for a while...something must be askew at the airport... thanks Steve.
  • by Fonzie Location: Bugtussle on Dec 7, 2010 at 06:16 AM
    Thanks Steve! Ur the best!!
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Dec 6, 2010 at 02:07 PM
    Hey Fonz, Don't think so. The prevailing winds aloft will steer this plume of moisture well to our south this week. West coast low will be absorbed into jet stream along U.S./Canadian border...some of the energy from it may bring snow to northern Plains later this week. Good eye! - Steve
  • by Fonzie Location: Bugtussle on Dec 6, 2010 at 08:56 AM
    Hey Steve! Do you see that HUGE area of low pressure off the West coast and influx of moisture from the equator coming this direction? Will that Low or moisture affect us anytime soon...if at all?
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Dec 3, 2010 at 03:32 PM
    Answers to recent questions: 1) Any snow that falls is very unlikely to affect central Texas. 2) The FNMOC can be seen at https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html You can view model outputs from all over the globe there: pretty neat! Thanks for the kind words and everyone have a blessed Holiday! Steve
  • by centraltexas resident Location: central texas on Dec 3, 2010 at 02:49 PM
    will the winter event reach down here in central texas too?
  • by Mr Weatherman Location: Denison on Dec 3, 2010 at 11:30 AM
    Hey Steve! I like to play weather man on the side and by using RAP, I am usually right there with ya when it comes to forecasts etc, but I do have question for ya. Where do you find the FNMOC Models? I'm a firm believer in the ETA, but wanted to use the Navy's as well. By the I'm sure you won't metion this, but sometimes when those trough's hit cold air they can sometimes strengthen in nature. However, due to the lack of moisture and the dew points being so low. It probably won't matter. Keep up the GREAT WORK!!! I like comparing forecasts with ya!
  • by Steve LaNore Location: KXII-TV on Dec 2, 2010 at 01:52 PM
    Fonzie, anything is possible, but the dry air mass behind Saturday's front is expected to penetrate at least a couple hundred miles into the Gulf. Plus the surface flow looks to be northeasterly around the high pressure cell through Tuesday with the 5k foot level (a key over-running indicator) weakly southwest. All of this points to skimpy moisture to work with when the mid-level trough arrives Monday night/Tuesday. So the burden of this event happening at all will be primarily on the "shoulders" of the mid-level trough, which is also trending weaker rather than stronger. Well it’s still four days out…so stay tuned to daily updates on how this develops. Take Care, Steve
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