UPDATE: Mon 6 Dec 2010 / 3:2-p.m. Even though nothing has changed,  thought you'd like to know I'm still keeping an eye on it.

Look for scattered flurries mainly Tuesday night with no accumulation. I will post a new blog tomorrow focusing on the next "blast 'o cold" expected Saturday - Steve

==============FRIDAY DISCUSSION=====================

UPDATE: 5:20p.m. Fri 3 Dec 2010 (discussion below map)

There has been very little change the previous discussion: a moisture-starved and fast-moving mid-level trough will pass over Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday.

This trough might provide some snow flurries; perhaps enough for a very light dusting. Given a general lack of moisture forecast in the lowest mile of air above the surface, it's just not a favorable situation for significant snowfall.

==============THURSDAY DISCUSSION=============

UPDATE: 5:30p.m. Thu 2 Dec 2010

The models are coming into better agreement that:

>>>The air will be cold enough for snowflake formation Monday night and Tuesday.

>>>Moisture will be quite limited due to northerly flow behind Saturday's front.

>>>An approaching mid-level trough will encounter "convergent flow" as it nears. This means air currents are coming together. This causes the low to be sheared and weaken.

>>>Given these factors, winter precipitation is expected to be very light with any snow accumulations just a dusting.

FACTORS that could change forecast:

===Stronger mid-level trough

===Greater moisture supply

Three maps below all show 6am Tuesday 500mb flow (steering winds)

Look for another update about this same time tomorrow. Previous discussion below.

==============WEDNESDAY DISCUSSION================

Polar high pressure building over central Canada is expected to push a cold front through sometime Saturday. The cool-down behind the front will be gradual as the high pressure center edges closer.