UPDATE: Mon 6 Dec 2010 / 3:2-p.m. Even though nothing has changed, thought you'd like to know I'm still keeping an eye on it.
Look for scattered flurries mainly Tuesday night with no accumulation. I will post a new blog tomorrow focusing on the next "blast 'o cold" expected Saturday - Steve
UPDATE: 5:20p.m. Fri 3 Dec 2010 (discussion below map)
There has been very little change the previous discussion: a moisture-starved and fast-moving mid-level trough will pass over Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday.
This trough might provide some snow flurries; perhaps enough for a very light dusting. Given a general lack of moisture forecast in the lowest mile of air above the surface, it's just not a favorable situation for significant snowfall.
UPDATE: 5:30p.m. Thu 2 Dec 2010
The models are coming into better agreement that:
>>>The air will be cold enough for snowflake formation Monday night and Tuesday.
>>>Moisture will be quite limited due to northerly flow behind Saturday's front.
>>>An approaching mid-level trough will encounter "convergent flow" as it nears. This means air currents are coming together. This causes the low to be sheared and weaken.
>>>Given these factors, winter precipitation is expected to be very light with any snow accumulations just a dusting.
FACTORS that could change forecast:
===Stronger mid-level trough
===Greater moisture supply
Three maps below all show 6am Tuesday 500mb flow (steering winds)
Look for another update about this same time tomorrow. Previous discussion below.
Polar high pressure building over central Canada is expected to push a cold front through sometime Saturday. The cool-down behind the front will be gradual as the high pressure center edges closer.
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