It looks like Texoma will see its first accumulating snowfall of the 2016-2017 winter season Jan 5-6; that’s this Thursday and Friday.
Take a look at the maps below for reference – a compact mid-level trough, circled in white, has been consistently forecast by the models to track east-southeastward toward the southern Plains for several days, and it seems to be right on its expected path. In fact, it looks to pass right over the Red River. Arctic winds blowing in on Thursday ahead of this system will deprive it of a generous low-level moisture supply, so this is not a heavy snow pattern.
As the trough approaches it will also impact the wind field over the arctic front at around 10,000 feet, “tightening up” the boundary aloft and throwing additional lifting into the equation. All of this points to the maximum snow potential to be between 12 a.m. and noon Friday.
I figure an inch or perhaps two underneath the core of the system with other spots getting less than a half inch.
Remember, it will be a fairly narrow area for the greatest snowfall, perhaps 50 to 75 miles wide. That makes it tough to pin down – but I’m fairly confident many of us will see at least a little snow sticking Friday morning. Snowfall will be less farther east and away from the frontal lift portion of this system.
I do believe we’ll see enough frozen precipitation for travel problems Friday morning in portions, though not all, of the region.
A reminder, that we will be posting any school closings on our free KXII app, on the KXII website, and of course on-air along the bottom of the screen. Be sure to tune in to News 12 through the event as we update the snowfall forecast for both timing and accumulation.
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