UPDATE: 9:45 p.m.
As mentioned in my forecast below, there's only a slight chance of a shower Easter Sunday morning with a better potential for rain or thunderstorms late in the day. No changes to the previous forecast. Happy Easter - Steve
Easter Showers, But Probably Not a Washout
5:00 p.m. Fri 18 April 2014
Fantastic Friday weather should continue into Saturday; expect clear and cool overnight followed by sunny to partly cloudy skies on Saturday. Clouds begin to increase late in the day as a new trough now over the desert southwest tracks to the ENE; it is also expected to slowly weaken as it approaches during the day Sunday.
This is a very “sloppy” system with two centers of lift, making it tougher to forecast the exact timing for rainfall. The good news is that trends have been for the rain to come later in the day or Sunday night compared to model runs earlier in the week.
So I’m keeping a chance of rain in the Easter forecast but chances will be in the 20% range for Easter Sunday morning and for most of the day, increasing late afternoon/night to 40%. The precipitation potential will linger into Monday before a cold front passes and stabilizes the atmosphere in its wake.
Dry and warm weather is expected for the middle of next week after the trough moves away.
A powerful surface low developing to our north mid-week would make for very windy conditions by Wednesday if it takes shape as expected.
Here are the numbers:
Tonight: Clear and a Bit Cool…..Lows 48 north to 53 south
Saturday: Partly Cloudy, 20% Rain Very Late…..Highs 76-80
Sunday: 20% Storms A.M., 40% P.M.…..58/78
Monday: 40% Thunderstorms…..62/79
Tuesday: Mostly Sunny…..58/81
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy, Very Windy …..55/85
Thursday: 30% Thunderstorms, Very Windy…..64/86
Friday: 20% Showers or Storms…..63/82
May You Have A Great Easter Weekend!
Weather Authority/News 12