UPDATE: 2:05 a.m.
Severe thunderstorms over Atoka and Pushmataha Counties will slowly weaken. Dangerous flash flooding will cause rises on area rivers downstream in the coming days.
Severe Potential, Heavy Rainfall Thu-Fri; Better Weather for the Weekend
5:00 p.m. Tuesday 24 May 2016
Scattered thunderstorms could move into Texoma overnight, the severe risk is quite low and the overall odds for rain are around 30 percent. Heavy rainfall is the primary threat.
Rain chances will be lowest on Wednesday at only 10 percent as the cap will be quite strong; this will be followed by a big jump in precipitation probabilities on Thursday-Friday. This happens as a strong mid-level low pressure system helps drive the dry line to the east on Thursday.
This is a typical severe weather set-up for late spring, and will need to be monitored closely. A second threat will be heavy rainfall as a moisture-charged atmosphere will be lifted by a strong trough. The threat for severe weather continues on Friday along with the potential for some flash flooding.
The good news: things quiet down for the weekend on the stable western side of the system. Although an isolated shower or storm could pop over the weekend, the “cap” will tend to strengthen and I have just a 10 percent chance for Saturday and 20 percent for Sunday. Monday, on the other hand looks to have a higher threat for rain and storms as another upper wave interacts with a very moist atmosphere.
Here are the numbers:
Tonight: 30% Thunderstorms….Lows near 73
Wednesday: 10% Thunderstorms, windy…..Highs mid to upper 80s
Thursday: 50% Thunderstorms, some severe…..72/83
Friday: 70% Thunderstorms, heavy rainfall…..68/78
Saturday: Partly cloudy…..67/88
Sunday: 20% Showers p.m./night…..70/84
Memorial Day: 40% Thunderstorms…..68/82
Tuesday: 40% Thunderstorms.….67/84
News 12 / Weather Authority