A surface cold front eased south of Texoma this morning. This puts is us an a more stable environment, which means that while a few hail-producing thunderstorms are possible tonight or Thursday morning, the primary threat will be heavy rainfall.

A well-defined upper low now over far west Texas will continue to move in a generally eastward direction. Strong lifting associated with this feature will keep the rain machine going overnight and into Thursday. Plentiful moisture remains in place for widespread rainfall of over an inch…to possibly several inches. A slight risk for severe storms exists due to the cold pool within the upper low: this set-up may help to generate a few hail cores in the stronger storms. However, widespread severe weather is not expected in Texoma tonight.

Cooler, drier air will gradually filter in behind the departing upper low and front Thursday evening. A secondary trough re-developing to our west may generate some clouds or a few showers Friday. This feature should be further away and weaker by Saturday, allowing for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with cool nights by mid May standards. Daytime highs for the weekend are expected to be seasonably warm in the low to mid 80s. No rain is expected for the period of Saturday into early next week.

The upper air pattern for this weekend will be quite irregular for late spring (see my May 12th blog with map for details).

Here are the numbers:

Tonight: 80% Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain Likely…..Lows 56-62
Thursday: 60% Rain, Tapering Off P.M..…..Highs 71-76
Friday: 30% Showers, Decreasing Clouds Late…..55/78
Saturday: Mostly Sunny …..55/82
Sunday: Mostly Sunny….56/84
Monday: Partly Cloudy…..60/85
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy…..61/86
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy, Windy…..68/88