UPDATE: 9:45 p.m. I bumped up tomorrow's rain chances slightly based on the expected position of a surface trough, and lowered them a bit for Wednesday. Otherwise, all is the same - Steve =========================
Unsettled Skies this Week; Front Passes Friday 5:15 p.m. Mon 30 March 2015
A weak warm front will push northward overnight and into Tuesday with the potential a few late-night or morning showers/storms.
A higher chance of rain presents itself tomorrow afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward from its current position over Baja. This feature will work with daytime heating and a surface trough to provide stronger lift. There’s a low-end risk of a severe storms late Tuesday afternoon/evening that could produce strong winds or hail, but this would be very spotty in coverage. However, overall storm coverage will be greater than in the morning hours.
The chance for storms continues on Wednesday as the wave passes; indications are the odds will be a bit less since the surface trough won’t be in the equation for Wednesday.
A cold front sweeps southeastward across the southern Plains Thursday afternoon/night, and it looks like some scattered thunderstorms may form along it late in the day or overnight. However, there won’t be much upper support (no mid-level trough), so rain is far from certain with this late-week event.
Drier and more stable air moves in behind the front for a pleasant Fri-Sat; there is a slight chance of rain returning by Sunday as this front also “backs up” as a warm front.
Here are the numbers:
Tonight: 20% Thunderstorms toward morning….Lows 57 to 61 Tuesday: Partly cloudy, breezy, 40% Storms…..Highs 75 to 80 Wednesday: Windy, 20% Thunderstorms…..62/76 Thursday: Windy, 20% Storms Late….64/84 Friday: 20% Rain early, then windy and cooler…..61/66 Saturday: Sunny …..45/67 Sunday: 30% Rain by afternoon…..48/61 Monday: 20% Thunderstorms…..59/78
Steve LaNore Chief Meteorologist News 12 / Weather Authority
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