Heavy Rain, Severe Potential Wed-Thu 5:00 p.m. Mon 20 April 2015
Surface high pressure brings a cool night with light winds to Texoma. A fast-moving upper disturbance passes late tonight and brings a remote chance of a few showers; given the very dry air mass this is in the 10 percent range for northern sectors of Texoma.
Low-level moisture begins returning tomorrow with southerly flow, and there’s a slight chance of an afternoon showers or storms (20 percent), with most of the action west of Texoma.
As moisture continues increasing and a cold front arrives Wednesday, there’s a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Some could be severe and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Texoma in an enhanced risk of severe, which is the 3rd level of 5 categories.
The severe potential will depend on where the front winds up during peak heating Wednesday afternoon; the boundary will probably slip to our south Thursday, shifting severe potential toward the Metroplex but keeping us in a heavy rain potential.
A second cold front drops in over the weekend so Sunday looks dry, with Saturday uncertain depending on the speed of the front.
Here are the numbers:
Tonight: 10% Rain north, otherwise increasing clouds…..Lows 42 to 48 Tuesday: 20% Storms…..Highs 72 west to 77 east Wednesday: 60% Thunderstorms…..58/78 Thursday: 40% Thunderstorms…..60/73 Friday: 50% Thunderstorms…..63/80 Saturday: Decreasing Clouds…..60/82 Sunday: Mostly Sunny…..53/77 Monday: 20% Storms…..58/73
Steve LaNore Chief Meteorologist News 12 / Weather Authority
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