UPDATE: 10:00 p.m. Latest trends follow my earlier thinking: heavy rain will remain west of I-35 this weekend, but all of Texoma will have the potential for some showers/storms Saturday and into Sunday. Longer-range guidance offers a little better hope for milder weather behind a front Mon-Wed of next week with mostly sunny skies. ========================================
Difficult Weekend Forecast….Some Rain Still Expected 5 p.m. Thu 18 September 2014
A complex of thunderstorms moved out of northeastern Oklahoma last night; rainfall across Texoma today varied widely from over an inch at Sulphur to a third of an inch at Hugo, to just a trace in Sherman.
A large zone of rain-cooled air moved in behind the storm front; the wind shift associated with the dividing line between the storm air and the surrounding warm air is called an outflow boundary. The air on the north side of the boundary was quite mild on Thursday with some locations in the mid-70s under cloudy skies at mid-afternoon. Nice!
The atmosphere has stabilized in the cooler air so no rain is expected tonight.
Some of the computer models generate isolated thunderstorms for Friday; there is a very small potential for a heat-driven afternoon or early evening showers so I’m going to put in a 10% chance. Most areas should not see rain for Friday Night Blitz football.
The Sat-Sun forecast is especially difficult as the remnants of Hurricane “Odile” will have a large impact on how much rain we get (if any). The models were quite consistent the past few days in bringing that system over us late Saturday night and Sunday….that is until today. Now the rain area is focused west of I-35 into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, and there is high agreement on that. One reason for this change may be the data available over northern Mexico is quite low compared to over the United States; now that the “Odile” system is within the U.S. grid the models may have adjusted to better quality data…and higher grid density.
The bottom line is rainfall potential this weekend will be higher the farther west you go, and mainly Saturday night into Sunday. I still think we’ll get some rain…how much is the unknown.
Here are the numbers:
Tonight: Partly Cloudy…..Lows 66 to 72 Friday: 10% Storms, Hot and Humid….Highs 88 to 93 Saturday: Windy, 40% Storms Late….70/89 Sunday: 20% Thunderstorms…..69/88 Monday: Mostly Clear …..68/85 Tuesday: Mostly Clear …..65/85 Wednesday: Mostly Clear …..65/86 Thursday: Mostly Clear ….….65/86
May You Have a Safe and Fun Weekend!
Steve LaNore Chief Meteorologist News 12 / Weather Authority
- TULSA, Okla. (AP) - The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory through late Wednesday for much of the state as stifling heat and humidity continue to affect Oklahoma this week.
- OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Gov. Mary Fallin has declared a state emergency across Oklahoma after several wildfires broke out across the state, including a blaze north of Oklahoma City that destroyed at least a half dozen homes and left one man dead.
Viewers with disabilities can get assistance accessing this station's FCC Public Inspection File by contacting the station with the information listed below. Questions or concerns relating to the accessibility of the FCC's online public file system should be directed to the FCC at 888-225-5322, 888-835-5322 (TTY), or firstname.lastname@example.org.