UPDATE: 10:15 p.m.
There have been numerous thunderstorms over northern and western portions of Texoma, from east of Ardmore to Ada to near Clayton, with rainfall rates of over an inch per hour. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding continues to be the primary threat overnight and into Wednesday morning. Turn around, don't drown!. No changes to the forecast - Steve
Locally Heavy Rainfall Overnight, Cooling Down, and a Potential Hurricane Developing
5:20 p.m. Tue 22 August 2017
A slow-moving cold front, the latest in a long series of rare August frontal visits, will generate widespread rain and thunderstorms overnight. Some locations may receive up to three inches of rain due to the unusually moist atmosphere that has persisted the past few weeks. The rain pattern gradually shifts southward with the front during the day Wednesday; drier air filters in and that should allow for rain to taper off. Thursday and Friday look nice with mild mornings, moderately warm afternoons and less mugginess than we’ve seen the past few weeks.
Great uncertainty enters the forecast as a potential hurricane developing off of the lower Texas coast throws a monkey wrench into the longer-range outlook. This system consists of the remnants of Tropical Storm “Harvey” which crossed the Caribbean and fell apart last weekend. Now, it’s regenerating over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
It’s remarkable how close the GFS and ECMWF models are even a week out, keeping us on the dry side of this tropical cyclone as it move over south Texas, back out to sea, and northeastward past Houston into Louisiana. Steering currents will be most challenging through Saturday after which a mid-level trough should begin to “nudge” the system eastward and northeastward with greater certainty.
There’s still a chance of rain from the system getting into our backyard this weekend so I will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Sat-Sun, but on the lower end of the scale.
A reminder that this “hurricane” has not yet formed and tropical cyclone forecasts are doomed to require change most of the time. For now we know that indications are strong Harvey’s left-overs will develop into a hurricane (or at least a tropical storm) over the next two days, and impact some portion of south or central Texas coastline before Saturday. Stay tuned.
Here are the numbers:
Tonight: 70% Thunderstorms, heavy rainfall…..Lows 67-73
Wednesday: 40% Thunderstorms, mainly morning…..Highs 85 north to 90 south
Thursday: Partly cloudy…...68/87
Friday: Partly cloudy…..66/86
Saturday: 30% Showers or storms…..70/84
Sunday: 20% Showers…..69/87
Monday: Partly cloudy…..70/90
Tuesday: Mostly sunny…..71/89
News 12 / Weather Authority
|Lake Texoma Temp||84|
|Grayson County Airport Observed High||94|
|Grayson County Airport Observed Low||74|
|Rain: Sherman-Denison (NTRA)||0.00|
|Ardmore Observed Low||75|
|SunRise||August 23, 2017: 6:54 a.m.|
|SunSet||August 23, 2017: 8:03 p.m.|