Online tool predicts COVID-19 risk based on county, event size

Published: Nov. 18, 2020 at 5:55 PM CST
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SHERMAN, Texas (KXII) - A new online tool developed by the Georgia Institute of Technology is giving people an idea of how dangerous your holiday could be, based on the county you are in and the size of your gathering.

“You know every tool at our availability right now, I would highly suggest using it,” Trusted ER president Dr. Harvey Castro said.

The Georgia Institute of Technology released an online COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool.

It breaks down the risk level of attending an event based on size and location.

Castro said he recommends using the tool to gauge your holiday travel.

“This is a great tool to use, definitely it helps you stratify your different risk, and with everyone moving and coming for Thanksgiving you know, that are coming from different counties, so this is a great way to assess your risk,” Castro said.

How it works is, you enter how many people will be at the event and find your county on the map.

For the purpose of this story, we used 50 people as the event size, but you can enter any number from ten to 5,000.

Then, it gives you a percentage of how likely it would be for at least one COVID-19 positive person to be at the event.

“So every single person that’s added to your house that’s one more factor that you have to consider so if you’re having a large, large gathering then your probability probably went up tremendously to have COVID,” Castro said.

According to the tool, Texoma counties in Oklahoma have higher risk.

It shows Coal County with the highest risk, with a 96 percent chance of one COVID-19 person being at an event with 50 people.

Then Bryan, Marshall, Love, and Pontotoc Counties are at 91 percent.

Atoka is 88 percent. Murray and Johnston Counties are in the low eighties. Choctaw is at 80 percent.

Carter and Pushmataha Counties are in the sixties.

Over in Texas, Lamar County is at 73 percent, then Grayson County at 62 percent.

Fannin and Cooke Counties are both below forty percent.

“If possible during this Thanksgiving year, try to just have your immediate family, but if you are going to have others, make sure that you’re keeping your social distance,” Castro said.

You can find the tool here.

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