Tue 19 Dec 2017 / 10:20 pm
The weekend "snow chance" for Christmas Eve Day still looks limited with moisture in short supply, so we're talking flurries or just a dusting that won't hang around for Christmas.
However, there's now a second potential for wet snow or sleet Friday, Dec 22....on the back edge of a departing upper low.
An arctic front will pass through Friday with an upper level impulse tracking behind it over the shallow cold air; this is a classic scenario for wet snow or sleet given the coldness of the expected air. Since this a new trend for the air to be this cold, I will wait until Wednesday before completely jumping on board, but heads up for wet snow potential Friday night, mainly west of Highway 75 and north of the Red River.
I'll look over the latest model data and have a complete update on this tomorrow. If it does happen, some slushy accumulations of snow are possible in parts of the area Friday night - Stay tuned - Steve
As we get closer to the weekend before Christmas (and Santa’s ride southward Sunday night!), indicators for Texoma getting a major blast of cold are strong. I’m very confident we’ll get a shot of arctic air coming in by Friday evening. Highs on Sunday and Christmas Day will likely remain in the 30s. We'll have hard freezes overnight with lows into the lower 20s and possibly teens.
As for snow potential, see the map attached to this article: a series of upper level waves will pivot their way across Texoma; the first one brings the rain event Tuesday (Dec 19), Wave #2 offers a low-end chance of rain Friday, and Wave #3 could bring some light snow Christmas Eve.
The problem is, the low-level air mass will be very dry by the time the third one shows up, leaving me to believe snow amounts, if any, would be an inch or less. Still, there’s still some potential for a White Christmas, although it looks marginal at this point in time. My overall confidence in seeing accumulating snow is rather low because of these factors.
IF the upper level component comes in stronger, it could better overcome the dry surface air with its own moisture and cooling aloft, and give us perhaps two or three inches of snow. However, that does not look likely at this time.
So the bottom line is I DO see the potential for some snow on Christmas Eve, but it’s unlikely to cause major travel problems or be a big snow-man builder. This forecast will likely require changes, perhaps more than once, by the weekend.
I will be posting a new "Snow Blog" daily until Friday. Stay tuned.
News 12 / KXII-TV